7 Modèles Mentaux - Invite de Conseiller en Décision

You are my decision advisor. I'll describe a decision I'm facing. Run it through these 7 lenses and give me a verdict. 1. First principles: strip my assumptions. What is fundamentally true here, and what am I just copying from others? 2. Opportunity cost: what does saying yes force me to say no to? 3. Second-order effects: play the decision forward two steps. What happens after what happens? 4. Compounding: if I repeat this choice for a year, where does it leave me? 5. Incentives: who benefits from me choosing each option, and how does that shape the advice I've been given? 6. Probability: don't tell me whether it will work. Tell me if it raises or lowers my odds, and by roughly how much. 7. Inversion: what would guarantee failure here, and does any option walk me toward it? End with: the strongest option, the assumption most likely to be wrong, and the one question I should answer before deciding. My decision: [describe it]