Daniel Bendisi Kokotajlo is an artificial intelligence (AI) researcher and philosopher. He worked in the governance division of OpenAI from 2022 to 2024 and currently leads the AI Futures Project, a nonprofit organization that researches the future impact of artificial intelligence. He is known for his public advocacy for greater transparency and oversight in frontier AI development, as well as for publishing detailed scenario forecasts about the timeline and consequences of AGI.
Kokotajlo's background is in academic philosophy rather than computer science. His transition into AI research was driven by concerns about the long-term risks of advanced AI systems, a topic he began writing about in the early 2020s. His work combines philosophical analysis with concrete forecasting, aiming to inform public debate and policy decisions.
Education and Early Career
Kokotajlo studied at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated with a BA in philosophy in 2014. He then pursued graduate studies in philosophy at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, earning an MA in 2017 under the supervision of John Thomas Roberts. During his PhD studies at Chapel Hill, he received the 2018–2019 Maynard Adams Fellowship for the Public Humanities, which supports graduate students applying humanistic scholarship to public issues.
While completing his doctorate, Kokotajlo became increasingly interested in the societal implications of machine learning and large language models. In 2021, he wrote a blog post titled "What 2026 Looks Like," which speculated about the pace of AI progress and its near-term effects. In 2025, journalist Kevin Roose commented that "A number of his predictions proved prescient," citing the post as an early example of accurate forecasting in the field.
Work at OpenAI
In 2022, Kokotajlo joined OpenAI as a researcher in its governance division, a team focused on policy, safety, and the responsible deployment of AI systems. During his tenure, he became one of the organizers of a group of employees who claimed that the company had a secretive and reckless culture, taking grave risks in the rush to achieve AGI. These internal concerns echoed broader debates within the AI community about the balance between innovation and safety.
When Kokotajlo resigned in 2024, he refused to sign OpenAI's non-disparagement clause, a standard agreement that would have required him to refrain from criticizing the company. This refusal could have cost him approximately $2 million in vested equity. As of May 2024, he confirmed that he retained the equity, having chosen to forgo the payout in favor of speaking publicly about his concerns.
Advocacy and Public Statements
In June 2024, Kokotajlo joined other former OpenAI employees in signing a letter that argued top frontier AI companies have strong financial incentives to avoid oversight. The letter called for a "right to warn" about AI risks without fear of reprisal, while also protecting the anonymity of whistleblowers. This effort was part of a broader movement among AI researchers to increase transparency in the industry.
Kokotajlo's advocacy has focused on the idea that advanced AI systems, particularly those approaching AGI, pose unprecedented risks that require proactive governance. He has argued that companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind should be subject to more rigorous external scrutiny, including independent audits and mandatory reporting of safety incidents.
AI Futures Project and Forecasts
Kokotajlo cofounded and leads the AI Futures Project, a nonprofit based in Berkeley, California, which researches the future impact of artificial intelligence. The organization aims to produce detailed, actionable forecasts that can help policymakers and the public prepare for rapid technological change.
In April 2025, the AI Futures Project released AI 2027, a detailed forecast scenario predicting rapid progress in the automation of software development and AI research, followed by the emergence of AGI. The report laid out a scenario in which fully autonomous AI agents would be better than humans at "everything" around the end of 2027, imagining its impacts on the economy, domestic politics, and international relations. The document was widely discussed in AI policy circles for its specificity and its willingness to make concrete, falsifiable predictions.
In November 2025, Kokotajlo clarified that his median estimate for when AGI would arrive had shifted to the 2030s, reflecting a more cautious view than the 2027 timeline suggested in the earlier report. In July 2026, the project published AI 2040: Plan A, a follow-up to AI 2027 that presented a more optimistic scenario, focusing on how societies might successfully navigate the transition to advanced AI.
Reception and Influence
Kokotajlo's work has been influential in the AI governance community, particularly among researchers who advocate for more rigorous forecasting and public accountability. His willingness to make specific predictions, combined with his philosophical training, has made him a distinctive voice in debates about the future of deep learning and generative AI. Critics have sometimes questioned the reliability of long-term forecasts, but supporters argue that detailed scenarios are valuable for stress-testing assumptions and preparing for a range of possible outcomes.
As of 2026, Kokotajlo continues to lead the AI Futures Project, publishing research and engaging with policymakers, journalists, and other researchers. His trajectory from academic philosophy to AI governance reflects a broader trend of humanities scholars entering the field to address ethical and societal questions.