Expected Value Decision Calculator
From Wikiprompt, the free prompt encyclopedia
Mar 2, 2026
Expected Value Decision Calculator A structured decision-making template that applies expected value analysis to evaluate options and determine the best choice or whether to reject all options.
Prompt ContentSave
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Decision: [WHAT YOU'RE DECIDING]
Options:
1. [OPTION A]
2. [OPTION B]
3. [OPTION C]
For each option, calculate:
- Best case outcome (what if it works perfectly?)
- Worst case outcome (what if it fails completely?)
- Probability of success (be honest, not optimistic)
- Expected value (best case × probability) - (worst case × probability)
Naval's rule: "If you can't decide, the answer is no."
Which option has highest EV? Or should I reject all of them?
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Usage
This prompt is designed for use with productivity. Copy the prompt content above and paste it into your preferred AI tool.
For best results, you may customize the placeholders (indicated by square brackets or capital letters) with your specific requirements.
References
- Category: productivity Prompts
- Source: https://x.com/ChrisLaubAI/status/2028400210771337504
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